From TD Ameritrade:
Market on Close: Sentiment only exacerbated the wall of worry, says Cem Karsan. He talks about what an elevated VIX means for investors. He goes over how to differentiate Fed and bond market volatility from geopolitical volatility. He also talks about how market-moving the Fed minutes are. He then goes over how the odds of China invading Tiwan are moderately high and the massive effects that would have on the markets.
From Real Vision:
Wall Street’s economists have issued their predictions for 2022, and most expect to see slower U.S. growth and easing inflation this year. Cem Karsan disagrees. In a view that also differs from host Darius Dale, he believes fiscal stimulus will continue to give the U.S. economy a boost in the short term and that tighter monetary policy won’t lower inflation as quickly as the Fed hopes. Longer term, he’s bearish. The CIO of Kai Volatility Advisors says rate hikes will reduce liquidity, ultimately leading to an economic slowdown, but it will be a long time before consumer prices see a dip. Recorded on December 27, 2021.
Top Traders Unplugged
From Top Traders Unplugged:
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging.
The Derivative Podcast
From the Derivative Podcast:
We're kickstarting the 2022 season of The Derivative with fan favorite - Cem Karsan. In this episode, the FinTwit star better known as @jam_croissant and his calls on Gary and Gamma and Vol and Vanna, digs into the interesting 2021 Vol moves, what 2022 may look like in the vol space (not good…or good, depending on your positioning), how he actually trades flow and options in his Kai hedge fund, as well as a journey through all the things that make you go 'hmm.' Tune in as Cem also highlights the three trading strategies that make up his firm’s offerings, a slightly different take on omicron, how he views the market’s movements as waves driven by flows, and more. Plus, as a bonus,
Mutiny Fund Podcast
From Mutiny Fund:
After his successful trading career, Cem decided to leverage his volatility arbitrage expertise by improving upon many of the flawed strategies he had witnessed during his tenure as a market maker. To that end, Kai Volatility Advisors has created a non-correlated and scalable investment vehicle that takes advantage of the structural mispricing inherent in option indices worldwide, while offering the superior transparency and liquidity that today’s investors demand. We talk about Cem’s experience as a market maker and how that affects how he thinks about trade flows. We dive into the 3 components to his strategy: 30 day skew, dispersion, and VVIX. We also discuss how dealer hedging can affect Vanna and Charm, which can pin the index or exacerbate moves depending on their hedge positioning.\
Meb Faber Podcast
From Med Faber Podcast:
In today’s episode, we’re getting deep into the weeds of market volatility. We hear from Cem about cutting his teeth in market making and S&P 500 equity options and eventually launching a strategy focused on long-volatility. We get into structural inefficiencies around market vol that tend to increase during times of market stress. We talk about what the year has looked like so far from his perspective, and the feedback loop and risks associated with liquidity, compressed risk premia, and a low-yield environment. We chat about what he sees markets pricing in and risk perceptions around the election, and some trade ideas to potentially take advantage of what he believes is mispriced volatility in the December to January period.
Flirting with Models Podcast
From Flirting with Models Podcast:
Cem began his career in the pits, and so we begin our conversation with a discussion by comparing and contrasting today’s market versus days gone by. It was in the pits that Cem began to understand and develop his intuition for markets and what would become the colorful cast of characters he uses to describe what’s driving flow: Gary the Gorilla, Vanna, and Charm the Sloth. How these characters cooperate or fight amongst themselves provides Cem with a forecast as to how markets should behave. It seems like these are new and growing forces, but Cem argues they’re as old as time: they are fundamental forces of markets. We end our conversation with a discussion of how these flows can have profound impacts for equity factor performance and what this all means for stock pickers.
From Market Huddle:
In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome back to the show, the godfather of options positioning, Cem Karsan. They have a terrific discussion about why regular folk should care about dealer inventories and why traders might think about pulling a Costanza when it comes to their summer positioning. Then we have the good fortune to have Edwin Dorsey from the Bear Cave Newsletter join to talk about his new letter focusing on short selling.
From TD Ameritrade:
Cem Karsan, Senior managing Partner at Aegea Capital Management LLC, discusses how the markets are under pressure following Monday’s gains. He also assesses trends in options activity, highlighting CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX). He then monitors implied volatility trends in options. Tune in to find out more.